A LibDem Perspective - An ‘unambiguous’ pledge?

As we enter the second half of the year, I thought I would have a look at how the Prime Minister's five pledges for the year are going.

Sadly, the cost of living crisis continues to blight millions of lives. Economists are not renowned for their sense of humour, but I bet a few gave a wry smile when the PM made halving inflation his top priority for the year and claimed this was an 'unambiguous' pledge.

There are several different measures of inflation, but he didn't state which he was using or what the starting figure was, so scarcely 'unambiguous'. More to the point, the government was quick to blame global factors for inflation increasing, so presumably it accepts that global factors rather than government policy will determine where inflation goes next? Because inflation is measured over 12 months, the spikes in energy and food costs caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago will now be dropping out of the headline inflation figures, so they will look better but the underlying higher costs will still be there.

Even more to the point, whatever is happening to government inflation figures means very little to individual households. The most widely quoted measure Consumer Prices Index (8.7% in May) excludes housing costs so is meaningless to everyone with a mortgage. Liberal Democrats believe that as it was the incompetence of Liz Truss's Government that drove up interest rates the government should take responsibility and help those who suddenly find their financial plans in disarray- funding this from a tax on banks' windfall profits. Retail Prices Index (11.3% in May) does include mortgage interest but is now less widely used; some other inflation measures exclude energy and food costs.

For many of the hardest hit households, it is food and fuel that are having the greatest impact. The latest food inflation figures remain around 18-19%, the highest for over 40 years. Liberal Democrats have called for government to investigate burgeoning supermarket profits and reduce their profit margins. Earlier this week the International Energy Agency warned that energy costs could well rise again this winter. Meanwhile salary increases remain well below inflation, particularly throughout the public sector.

And what of the PM's other New Year Pledges? The economy is indeed growing, but by the smallest of margins, 0.1%, well below the average for developed countries and still below pre-Covid levels. It is not though translating into better paid jobs as promised. The pledge to reduce national debt has actually seen national debt exceed our GDP for the first time in 62 years; NHS waiting lists are not coming down, and it is increasingly clear that the weather has far more effect on 'small boats' than government policy.

There are, of course, some unprecedented global challenges facing every government. But we need honesty from our government, not platitudinous promises designed to boost flagging poll ratings.

Cllr Kathryn Field